POPULATION AND ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

by Georgie Anne Geyer

It's not working. For years, people who were against family planning could argue, and hope, and pretend, and weave tales about the glories of open grasslands in Kazakhstan as an answer to the world's population problem--and some people listened. But now, in a sudden rush of new information about both population pressures and the Earth's sheer sustainability, we can clearly see how foolishly self-destructive that approach has been and continues to be.

As we approach this much-vaunted millennium, we first have to realize that, as a new report from the Population Reference Bureau puts it, "In the history of the world, no century can match the population growth of the one now coming to an end. We entered the 20th century with less than 2 billion people, and we leave it with more than SIX BILLION."

Great efforts at family planning through female education (the term "population control" is now considered too strong) supposedly began at the UN population summit in Cairo 5 years ago. But those efforts have largely failed because they were too little. Meanwhile, U.S. funding for contraception was cut back because of anti-abortion opposition.

But now the whole population problem, across the board, is becoming the pivotal center to the question of whether societies can develop and provide decent lives for their people, or whether they will doom themselves to the internal conflict and chaos that overpopulation inevitably brings.

From the recently published Beyond Malthus: Nineteen Dimensions of the Population Challenge, from the WorldWatch Institute and its President, Lester Brown: "Tragically, the world is dividing into two parts: One where population growth is slowing as fertility falls, and one where population growth is slowing as mortality rises." That means that, without intelligent strategies to slow population growth, "1/3 of humanity could slide into a demographic black hole," without sufficient water or cropland.

We know which countries these are. For instance: Nigeria's population is projected to rise from 111 million today to 244 million in 2050. Pakistan's projected growth will be from 146 million today to 345 million by 2050. All such countries will outrun the capacity of the world to feed them, much less feed themselves.

Yet while those voices who complacently repeat that we need not fear a population explosion continue to lull people, another recent publication, God's Last Offer, Negotiating for a Sustainable Future, shows how intricately, and dangerously, the world's environment and population are interconnected: The unsustainable consumption of resources is so drastic that the net forested area of the world is shrinking by the size of two football fields EVERY SECOND. All while population growth in the neediest countries--the poorest 1/3 of humanity--is going through the roof.

The fact is, we know now what works in developing countries to limit population growth: a reasonably non-corrupt representative government, appropriate forms of economic freedom, a just legal system, a wise diversification of economic resources and income, a high investment in education, women's rights AND family planning.

A prime example: Arab Tunisia on the northern coast of Africa had 4 million people in 1957 when it gained independence from France; with a strong family planning program, it now has 9 million people and is one of the fastest developing countries in the world. Its neighbor Algeria also had about 4 million in 1957; today it has 30 million people and is ensnared in seemingly endless civil war and chaos. There are many such examples.

Indeed, what more and more serious environmentalists and thinkers are seeing is that once countries are caught in the explosive levels of population growth of a Nigeria, Pakistan or Algeria, they can't develop beyond the stage of hopeless conflict.

It's time for those people who are pushing for more and more population growth--and who refuse to see the clear warning signals--to simply admit that they don't really care if others stay in poverty, ignorance and chaos. Because, in fact, that is what they are really saying.

Georgie Anne Geyer is a syndicated columnist writing on foreign policy and international affairs, and author of the book Americans No More, The Death of Citizenship. ©Universal Press Syndicate. Reprinted with permission. From Pop!ulation Press vol 5, # 4, May/June 1999.