Part 1 - Misconceptions About the Nature of the Problem

1. Myth: Population growth has occurred at current levels over many centuries.

Population growth of the magnitude we are experiencing now is a phenomenon of the second half of the 20th century. As recently as 1925, India and many other developing countries were at zero population growth. While birth rates and death rates were both high in these countries, they were at the same level, so that population growth rates (the net of birth rates minus death rates) were zero or close to zero.

This table, adapted from Measuring Mortality, Fertility, and Natural Increase by James Palmore and Robert Gardner, gives a quick historical look at world population growth rates:	Years	Annual Crude Rate of Natural Increase (Per 100)
	1650-1750	.37
	1750-1850	.47
	1850-1900	.54
	1900-1950	.84
	1950-1960	1.86
	1960-1970	1.95
	1970-1980	1.86
	1980-1990	1.75

2. Myth: The population problem is the result of a recent surge in birth rates.

Birth rates (number of births per 1000 population) and total fertility rates (the number of children a woman would theoretically have in her life span if she followed the current fertility patterns of each age group in the population) have both been dropping on a worldwide basis during most of the latter half of the 20th century. The decline has been particularly notable since 1970.

Instead, the very high rates of growth of the world's population result primarily from declining mortality levels, particularly among infants and children, most especially among developing countries. For example, in 1920, just over 56 percent of male babies survived to adulthood in Sri Lanka. By 1967, this had changed to over 90 percent (Palmore and Gardner, 1983; Palmore and Gardner did not include similar data on females). The same is true in country after country: declines in mortality were so much faster than declines in fertility that the result was unprecedented net rates of population increase.

The potential exists in some countries for further reduction in infant and child mortality rates. In addition, throughout the world there is increasing life expectancy for adults. Some gerontologists believe it is possible that, within the next 50 years, medical science will find a way to slow the aging process by interrupting the genetic signals that cause age-related deterioration. If this occurs, the rate of population growth could increase.

Rapid population growth in the second half of the 20th century is the result of widespread inoculation programs and other public health measures that have led to declining death rates and a consequent gap between traditionally high birth rates and recently low death rates. The only way population growth can stop is if the birth rate and death rate reach the same level. Since removing public health measures or otherwise allowing the death rate to rise once again to the level of the birth rate would cause great human suffering, most of the efforts at population stabilization have been focused on reducing birth rates. Various approaches to reducing birth rates will be discussed later in this paper.

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