UNBALANCED POPULATION GROWTH LEADS TO WAR

Under the rather arcane title, The Security Logic of High Sex Ratio Societies, a stunning article by two researchers, Valerie M. Hudson at Brigham Young University, and Andrea M. DenBoer at University of Kent in the UK, points to "a variable that will become highly significant in Asia within the next two decades. That variable is the young adult sex ratio. The sex ratios of many Asian nations are being skewed in favor of males on a scale unprecedented in human history."

Their article explores the "violent dynamics of ...high sex ratio populations," clearly identifying the potential security dangers for our planet which have resulted from the rapidly growing populations of the past hundred years and the bias favoring male children over females in key Asian nations.

"Normal birth sex ratios range between 105-107 males per 100 female births." Their data for 7 Asian countries (Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, Nepal, China and Taiwan) shows from 66 to 86 million of the missing females in Asia are attributed to these countries, but two of them, "China and India together contribute to between 61 and 68 million." Many scholars now feel the number is higher, perhaps 100 million. And the imbalance in recent years has increased rapidly. For example, in Punjab, the sex ratio of children from zero to 6 years of age is now 126 males to every 100 females.

After September 11th, we should all understand and care about this condition. Let the experts explain why. This and other recent studies have shown that where what the authors call surplus young adult males (what I have dubbed "rogue males") predominate, instability is often rife. And as we know now, this surplus of "rogue males" can lead to "rogue" governments that harbor and abet terrorists, as in Afghanistan.

In China, these surplus males are called, guang gun-er or bare sticks, as they will not marry (bear fruit!) because it is unlikely a marriage partner can be found for them. By 2020, these authors predict there will be 40 million bare sticks for China alone! These are not your Western type bachelors. These bare sticks don't have much chance; often they come from the lowest socio-economic class, are un- or under-employed, live a nomadic lifestyle with few ties to the communities in which they are working, generally living and socializing with other bare sticks. Thus, their behavior follows a broadly predictable pattern, prone to seek satisfaction through vice and violence. Chinese scholars have shown that these bare sticks cause an overwhelming percentage of violent crime. One found that "an unmarried man between 24 and 35 is about 3 times as likely to murder another male as is a married man of the same age." These men have "nothing to lose but their reputations for violence." The Chinese government knows it has a floating population of 150 million, most of them young adult males (bare sticks). Beijing Review reports that 80% of its crime comes from these floaters!

Authors Hudson and DenBoer note that much the same analysis can be made for India. Thus, what we see happening today, a continuing and probably escalating war between India and Pakistan is in some ways a logical policy option for these governments with too many rogue males. These authors have confidently predicted a continuing and increasingly dangerous war over Kashmir between India and Pakistan, both of which have dangerously unbalanced sex ratios.

And what has happened in America since our immigration laws were changed in 1965? The "open border" policies of our major parties have allowed at least 8 million illegal aliens to remain here, many even after deportation orders are issued against them. Congress just adjourned without passing a Visa Control Bill, that among other things would have strengthened foreign student tracking and instituted machine readable biometric IDs on visas and some passports.

American policies for dealing with this looming rogue male issue must include:

• A better understanding of the governance problems in places such as China, India and Pakistan. These governments are not living in Kansas, Dorothy, but in a real world often close to anarchy.
• Enlargement of foreign assistance, especially better controlled and directed toward providing family planning services.
• And a staunch refusal to allow ourselves to be overrun with rogue males or any large foreign contingent who can't be readily absorbed into our nation's culture and values.

Governments with unbalanced population growth face vexing policy dilemmas. Their governance must be more authoritarian. They must cultivate a political style crafted to retain the allegiance and respect of their huge numbers of unattached young males.

Why bleat about human rights to governments just trying to survive the ravages of overpopulation? Why provide so much military hardware, but no family planning assistance? These fragile governments need our patience, our understanding and our carefully directed economic aid.

Donald Collins, a free lance writer living in Washington, has traveled extensively in developing nations, most recently in Africa.