A ROADMAP TO SUSTAINABILITY
Editorial - Marilyn Hempel
The best way to predict the future is to create it.
In the last Pop!ulation Press we took an in-depth look at major recent publications that provided vital data about the world's present unsustainable population and consumption patterns. All of the authors concluded that human environmental impacts now exceed the capacity of Nature to repair itself and to meet the expected needs of future generations, sustainably. According to the Living Planet Report, humanity is now consuming natural resources at an annual rate that is over 20% greater than the Earth can regenerate. Yes, we can consume more fish than we replace or clear more rainforests than we regrow, but not for long!
Although material growth has become the central goal of many economies, growth forever is not good; it is the mindset of a cancer cell. Growth forever is not possible; nothing on Earth grows forever. The planet Earth may develop, diversify, evolve, regenerate and recreate. It does not grow. The same ultimately must be true of human beings and the nonrenewable resources and material goods that they consume.
There may be space for more people, but as population grows, the amount of arable land and fresh water available per person shrinks. These, and other natural resources, are essential to ensure a healthy, safe and secure life for all peopleÑpeople living now, and future generations. And we must not forget that we share the planet with other creatures, many of which we depend on (example: pollinating insects), and all of which presumably have a right to exist.
People who live in industrialized nations often blame environmental destruction on runaway population growth in poor nations. Rampant population growth is important, but it doesn't tell the whole story. Unsustainable consumption is an equally serious issue. One way to conceptualize the impact of any population is to use Paul Ehrlich's famous "I=PAT": I (environmental impact) = P (population size) x A (affluence per person) x T (technology), or I = PAT. He states, "resource depletion and environmental degradation are the products of three factors: population size; per capita affluence (or consumption); and the environmental impact caused by the technology used to supply each unit of consumption." I would add that poverty can also cause great environmental destruction. Although this simple equation is not perfect, it certainly helps to put population growth and consumption in perspective.
Consider the astonishing fact that since 1950 Americans have consumed more goods, services, and therefore natural resources, than all other peoples in all other periods of human history combined. In terms of numbers, India is rapidly on its way to becoming the world's most populous nation. China will be number 2; the United States number 3. But the average U.S. citizen consumes 35 times as much as the average citizen of India. In perspective, an Indian couple could have 70 children before they would equal the environmental impact of a typical two-child American family.
The bottom line: if everyone lived the way Americans do, the world would need at 4 planet Earths to support us. According to the research team headed by scientist David Pimentel, at the U.S. standard of living, the long-term carrying capacity of the Earth is approximately 2 billion people. This is yet another piece of research that suggests a world in overshoot.
In the last Pop!ulation Press, we examined the current state of human society, and called for renewed action to meet humanity's biggest challenge in the 21st century: learning to live within the life support capacity of one planet.
In order to respond effectively to the challenge described in the last issue, we have attempted in this edition to prepare and envision a possible roadmap to a more sustainable future.
That roadmap must include the economy, and how energy is produced, distributed and used. The roadmap must be human-scaled, not dependent on the automobile. It must include the empowerment of women and girls, one-half the world's population, who remain excluded from decision-making in dozens of countries. The road to sustainability must run through cities, suburbs, and farmland. It must leave plenty of wild space for non-human life, and for humans to marvel at. And this road, and all it attendant activities, must be designed within the Earth's regenerative capacity.
Lastly, we must not forget our children's children. Someday, hopefully, they will live here too. Will they inherit a restored verdant living planet, a world where they can have as many choices as we have? Or will they inherit an exploited, ravaged and destroyed planet, where opportunities to breathe clean air, drink clean water and experience wilderness are in steady decline?
No matter how much technology we have, none of us can live without the natural resources of the Earth. We are all part of the web of life. During our brief time here we have a choice to make: we can either travel down the road toward sustainability or not. A new mindset or the old. Which will it be? Every day of our lives with every action we take, we are making a profound choice.
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