POPULATION GROWTH MAY OVERCROWD TABLE

Repps Hudson, St Louis Post-Dispatch

Half the world's people (3.2 billion) now go to bed hungry. Can the world raise everyone out of poverty while adding another 2.6 billion people?

Global population growth of nearly 50% in the next 45 years will challenge policymakers around the world as never before, a leading agricultural figure proclaimed at the opening session of the World Agricultural Forum. James B. Bolger, former prime minister of New Zealand, said in the keynote address that "no issue will test the mettle of leaders more than accommodating and feeding an extra 2.6 billion people by 2050-and alongside that, responding to the very challenging policy implications of aging and declining populations in the developed world."

About 250 representatives of agribusiness corporations, academia, governments and non-governmental organizations convened in St Louis for a three-day conference to explore issues relating to feeding the growing world population, opening markets for agricultural commodities and products, and spurring development in less-developed nations.

Leonard J. Guarraia, chairman of the forum, said the discussions provide an opportunity for leaders in many fields related to agriculture to meet and exchange ideas. "How do we keep people fed and happy?" Guarraia asked in an interview. "Two-thousand, twenty-five is tomorrow in world time."

Bolger, whose government eliminated farm subsidies in five years, is a familiar figure at the congress. While population in major industrial nations [except the U.S.] is expected to decline over the next few decades, "the population of the 50 'least developed' countries is projected to more than double, moving from 800 million to 1.7 billion in 2050," he said.

For large agricultural producers such as the United States, the only chance of expanding markets is in low-income countries, said Robert L. Thompson, Gardner Chair of Agricultural Policy at the University of Illinois.

But those countries, which make up the majority of the 140 nations in the World Trade Organization, will have to see changes in agricultural trade in ways that favor them before they will agree to changes in WTO policies, he said. For example, many of the poorer countries that are dependent on one or two commodities, such as cotton, rice and sugar, are hurt by subsidies to those crops by large producer countries like the United States. So they will continue to try to end subsidies to help their own farmers.

To gauge the size of the potential market in agricultural trade, Thompson flashed slides that show that more than half of China's 1.3 billion people live on less than $2 a day, and 80% of India's population live on a similar income.

As their per capita incomes rise, so will their demand for food from abroad, Thompson stated. The greatest growth in demand comes when daily income rises from $1-$2 a day to $8-$9 a day, he added. Thompson, a former World Bank official, said if the wealthiest nations want to raise income levels in poorer countries, they must change national policies such as subsidies and trade barriers that hurt the poorer countries.

Source: St Louis Post-Dispatch, May 16, 2005.