Population Reference Bureau

Looking Ahead to 2020

The size and demographic composition of the U.S. population is constantly changing, and by 2020, the country will likely look very different than it does today. Here are some of the significant demographic events that could occur before the next census, if recent trends continue:

• The U.S. population may increase to more than one-third of a billion people (more than 333 million).
• Hispanics could account for one in five U.S. residents.
• The proportion of children who are racial/ethnic minorities could pass 50% of the population under age 18.
• Florida may replace New York as the third-largest state.
• One in six U.S. residents could be 65 or older.

For each of these events, the question is not really whether they will occur, but when. Future demographic trends are already built into the current age and racial/ethnic composition. For example, even if we closed the borders to new immigrants, the Latino population would continue to grow because of its young age structure, which creates population momentum through the large number of couples who are starting families. Immigration and growing racial/ethnic diversity among America's youth have put the U.S. on a path to become majority-minority within a generation.

Source: Population Reference Bureau, Reports on America, July 2011, authors: Mark Mather, Kelvin Pollard & Linda A Jacobsen. Reprinted with permission.